Virginia Housing Market Forecast for 2026: What It Means for Your Home’s Value—and Your Next Move
- 21 hours ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 5 hours ago
As we look ahead to 2026, many Virginia homeowners are asking practical questions:
Will my home value continue to rise? Is now a smart time to sell? Should I consider moving—or stay put?
The good news from leading housing economists is this: the market is stabilizing, affordability is gradually improving, and home values remain resilient. While the rapid price spikes of the pandemic years are behind us, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of balance—not decline.
Here’s what national experts are saying—and what it could mean for you here in Virginia.
Home Prices: Still Rising, But at a Healthier Pace
According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, home prices rose 1.4% year-over-year in November 2025, with a 0.4% monthly increase. This year, limited housing supply continues to support price growth, even as affordability challenges temper demand.
Looking ahead in 2026:
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expects home price growth to moderate to about 2%–3% nationally—roughly in line with inflation.
Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale similarly projects around 2% price growth, noting that in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, homes may actually become more affordable.
Importantly, Yun emphasizes that home prices are in no danger of major decline. Even modest appreciation brings positive equity gains for homeowners.
What This Means for Virginia Homeowners
Virginia’s housing markets—particularly in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and parts of Hampton Roads—continue to face inventory shortages similar to much of the Northeast and Midwest U.S. In regions where supply still lags, prices have generally remained firm.
For current homeowners, that suggests two things: home values are likely to remain stable or rise modestly in 2026, and a sharp drop in value appears unlikely under current forecasts.
Mortgage Rates: The Key Variable
Mortgage rates have hovered near 6% after peaking above 7% in 2023. And small changes make a big difference.
NAR Senior Economist Nadia Evangelou explains that a one-percentage-point drop in mortgage rates could expand the number of qualified buyers by 5.5 million households, potentially adding about 500,000 home sales nationwide.
Lower rates reduce monthly payments, bring first-time buyers back into the market, and increase overall demand. Realtor.com estimates that 2026 could mark the first year since 2020 that monthly payments decline, thanks to easing rates offsetting moderate price growth.
For Sellers
If rates continue easing, more buyers may re-enter the market—creating stronger demand for well-priced homes.
For Buyers (or Move-Up Sellers)
Improved affordability could create opportunity, especially compared to the intense bidding wars of recent years.
Inventory Is Improving—But Still Tight
One of the defining features of today’s market remains limited supply.
Existing-home sales jumped 5.1% in December to 4.35 million annualized units.
Inventory remains 11.6% below pre-pandemic levels.
Months of supply recently fell to 3.3 months, still considered low.
At the same time, inventory is about 20% higher than a year ago, according to NAR.
Yun describes 2026 as a year of “reawakening” in home sales, projecting a 14% nationwide increase in transactions as more owners move past the “lock-in effect” of ultra-low pandemic mortgage rates.
Translation for Virginia:
Buyers now have more options than during 2021–2023.
Sellers may need to price strategically.
The market is more balanced—less frenzied, more thoughtful.
New Construction: Slowly Filling the Gap
Housing supply remains structurally short nationwide. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), notes that while inventory has improved, the U.S. still faces a housing deficit. He projects about a 1% growth in both single family construction and new-home sales in 2026.
Interestingly, the median resale home price is currently higher than the median new-construction home price—an unusual dynamic driven by builder incentives and geographic shifts.
For Virginia communities where new construction is active, buyers may find competitive pricing in newer homes.
Affordability: Gradual Improvement
After several difficult years, affordability is slowly improving:
Wage growth is expected to outpace home price growth.
Monthly mortgage payments are expected to decline slightly.
Buyers have more negotiating leverage than during the pandemic boom.
Danielle Hale describes the current environment as the most balanced housing market in nearly a decade. However, affordability challenges remain for middle-income households. Evangelou notes that middle-income buyers can afford only about 21% of homes currently for sale—down significantly from pre-pandemic norms.
Demographics: Who’s Driving the Market?
The housing market in 2026 will be shaped by changing buyer profiles:
Baby boomers will remain dominant, often purchasing with significant equity or all-cash.
First-time buyers will gradually re-enter as affordability improves.
Single female buyers will continue to grow as a share of the market.
Smaller households are will influence demand for more modest home sizes.
These demographic shifts may affect the types of homes in highest demand—particularly in Virginia’s suburban and retirement-friendly communities.
Should You Sell in 2026?
Here are a few guiding principles:
Consider Selling If:
You’re relocating for work or family.
You want to downsize and unlock equity.
Mortgage rates improve enough to make your next purchase affordable.
Your home no longer fits your lifestyle.
With sales expected to rise in 2026, motivated sellers may benefit from renewed buyer activity.
Consider Staying If:
You have a very low mortgage rate and no pressing reason to move.
You’re satisfied with your home and neighborhood.
Renovating or upgrading makes more financial sense than moving.
Given modest projected appreciation, holding property continues to support long-term wealth building.
The Bottom Line for Virginia Homeowners
The outlook for 2026 is not one of boom or bust. Instead, economists predict:
Modest home price growth (around 2%–3%)
Rising home sales activity
Gradually improving affordability
Increasing—but still limited—inventory
Mortgage rates that could unlock additional demand
For most Virginia homeowners, this suggests continued value stability and opportunity—not risk of sharp decline.
Whether you choose to stay, sell, or move, the fundamentals remain supportive of homeownership as a long-term investment. And regardless of market cycles, protecting your home—and its value—remains essential.
Kiplinger, National Association of Realtors (NAR), Investopia, Wall Street Journal, J.P. Morgan