Calm for Now, But Stay Ready: Hurricane Season Is Just Getting Started
- Mutual Assurance Society
- 6 hours ago
- 4 min read
As of mid-June, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start—so slow, in fact, we’re still waiting for the first named storm, “Alberto.” That hasn’t happened this late since 2014. But if you think this calm means we’re in the clear – not so fast.
Early Lull Doesn’t Mean a Quiet Season
Hurricane season officially began June 1, but historically, it doesn’t hit its stride until August. In fact, 98% of the season’s activity—measured by a metric called ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy)—still lies ahead. So, while it feels quiet now, that’s normal.
Even some of the most active years (like 2020 and 2005) started slow and revved up in July and August. In fact, July is often when things really get going.
Why Experts Still Urge Caution
Several warning signs are already in place:
Record-warm ocean waters from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico could fuel stronger storms.
La Niña conditions may develop later this summer, which tends to make the atmosphere more hurricane-friendly and could steer more storms toward the U.S.
What the Busiest Seasons Have Taught Us
Looking back at the 10 most active hurricane seasons, most had just one or two June storms—some had none at all. July, on the other hand, saw the action ramp up with two to three storms on average, including a hurricane or two. Several of those went on to make U.S. landfall.
When Have Virginia’s Worst Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Hit?
Virginia has seen its fair share of storms over the years—more than 50 hurricanes have affected the state. So, which storms have been the worst to hit Virginia? In order of when they hit, here are the ones you may remember.
Hurricane Hazel (October 1954)
Hazel produced a 79 mph wind gust in Richmond, making it the most powerful hurricane to cross central Virginia. To this day, it is still Richmond’s highest wind gust ever measured during a tropical event.
This quick-moving storm landed in North Carolina as a Category 4 storm and rapidly moved into Virginia. It uprooted trees, ripped off roofs, devastated the crabbing industry in the Chesapeake Bay, and caused $15 million worth of damage and 12 deaths. For reference, $15 million in 1954 is around $180 million today.
Hurricane Camille (August 1969)
Camille is known as the deadliest natural disaster in state history. It originated in the Gulf of Mexico and intensified rapidly.
Camille made landfall in Mississippi as a Category 5 storm and weakened into a tropical depression as it moved inland. Over a roughly five-hour period, the storm produced rainfall totals as high as 27 inches. After the rain, deadly flash flooding and mudslides ensued. Over 100 bridges were swept away, and 153 people were killed in Virginia alone.
Hurricane Fran (September 1996)
Fran formed from a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa and quickly reached Category 3 status. It is another storm that made landfall near Cape Fear, North Carolina, with sustained winds over 115 MPH, causing the largest storm-related power outages in state history at the time.
Damage was caused primarily by serious flooding (Fran was the fourth wettest known tropical cyclone to impact Virginia), with the heaviest damage on the downslope of the Big Meadows area, which received over 16 inches of rainfall. Hundreds of people were stranded for several days, the Shenandoah National Park was closed, and 300 homes were destroyed.
Fran cost Virginia $4.16 billion in damage, and 27 lives were lost.
Hurricane Floyd (September 1999)
This Cape Verde hurricane struck North Carolina with 155 MPH sustained winds. As it made its way across Virginia, it dumped heavy rainfall, which led to severe flooding. Damages reached $101 million, including submerged towns, destroyed homes, and destroyed critical infrastructure. Four fatalities also occurred.
Hurricane Isabel (September 2003)
Isabel left over 2 million residents without power, took down thousands of trees, and triggered deadly flash flooding. More than 1,186 homes and 77 businesses were destroyed. An additional 9,110 homes and 333 businesses were severely damaged. Thirty-six people were killed, and the state suffered over $1.85 billion in damages, making Isabel Virginia’s costliest natural disaster.
Hurricane Gaston (2004)
Gaston stalled over the Richmond metro and produced torrential rainfall for about 8 hours straight, leading to unprecedented flooding across the area. The highest recorded rainfall was from Richmond’s West End, an astonishing 12.6 inches of rain. Eight people were killed as a direct result of the flooding.
Hurricane Agnes (June 1972)
Agnes is known for producing the worst river flooding the capital of Richmond has ever seen.
The storm made landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida and moved quickly up the East Coast. In Virginia, Agnes dumped 13.6 inches of rain along the Blue Ridge Mountains, and in Richmond, the James River crested at an all-time high of 36.5 feet. This record-setting crest washed out all but one of the bridges across the river. Agnes left $222 million of damage and 17 deaths in her wake, mainly due to flash flooding.
Hurricane Irene (August 2011)
Another hurricane that started off the coast of Africa, Irene made landfall in North Carolina as a strong Category 1 storm. It stayed to the eastern parts of the Commonwealth and caused significant damage to the coastal and central parts. Severe flooding led to the loss of four lives and resulted in $39 million in damage to public property and more than $150 million to private property.
So while this June may feel calm, history says the real action is likely still ahead. Don’t wait for a storm to show up in the forecast to make your hurricane plan. Check your supplies, review your insurance, and make sure your evacuation routes are clear. The season is just getting started.
To see the total recorded history of Tropical Storms for Eastern and Central Virginia, click here.
Sources: WWBT, ChaseDay.com, Wikipedia, The Weather Channel, National Weather Service, FEMA
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