The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a significant shift in the El Niño climate pattern for 2024.
The El Niño of 2023 has been the most potent in 75 years and is predicted to trigger several extreme weather events this winter throughout the U.S. Already it has generated tropical storm-like conditions in Florida, and flash-flooding throughout Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic.
Over the next several months, extreme weather is anticipated worldwide because of rising water temperatures and unusual wind patterns over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Even with winter weather being more severe because of this strong El Niño, NOAA gives only an 11% chance that El Niño will have the same strength this summer. You might think this is good news for Virginia, but it isn't.
A low El Niño combined with warmer Atlantic waters will favor an above-normal hurricane season for 2024 as the strong El Niño of 2023 kept hurricanes weaker and fewer.
Convective storms with tornadic activity and sometimes catastrophic flooding are also expected across the U.S. due to the near-neutral climate status a weakened El Niño brings.
The Takeaway: expect damaging weather this winter through next summer and batten down the hatches. Here are some articles that can help you ensure your home and property are as ready as they can be for inclement weather:
Source: Triple-I Daily, NOAA